Will Washington’s Decoupling Agenda Delay the EV Transition | 华盛顿的战略脱钩计划会延缓电气化的转型吗？

For years, U.S. automakers pushed back against Asia’s move towards Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV), allowing Chinese OEMs and suppliers to develop technologies and gain a firm foothold in electrification.  And, then, in a flip of a switch, the Big 3 decided to jump in the game with both feet, but at a distinct disadvantage as the initiative was already years in development in Asia, and U.S. lawmakers were indifferent to supporting any transition away from oil.  While the industry announced major investments, Washington was having more difficulty seeing the future.  Then, in August 2021, President Biden took a historic step by calling for OEMs to produce 50% of their new U.S. vehicles with zero-emissions by 2030. As a result, 2022 was a remarkable year for transformation from internal combustion engines to battery-powered electric vehicles. With the Industry and now Washington firmly behind a transition to BEV, major automakers in the United States have unequivocally pledged to phase out their internal combustion passenger cars for zero-emission vehicle alternatives by the end of this or the next decade. Notable strategic blueprints of these OEMs include, Stellantis’s Dare Forward 2030, Ford’s New Battery Capacity Plan, and GM’s All-Electric Future. Even major Japanese OEMs, who had been wading in the tide of BEV are questioning whether the hybrid play may not be the future.

多年以来，美国汽车制造商没有与亚洲一样参与向纯电动汽车的方向发展，这使中国的汽车制造商以及供应商得以开发其技术并在电气化领域站稳脚跟。然而仅仅一念之间，北美汽车三巨头，尽管由于亚洲国家的电气化发展已开展多年并且美国的立法者对从石油到电气转变的不支持而处于明显的劣势，相继决定加入这场电气化游戏。虽然汽车行业纷纷宣布对电气领域的重大投资，但是华盛顿方面看到的未来确是困难重重。然而，在2021年8月，拜登总统迈出了历史性的一步，呼吁汽车制造商制定目标，计划到2030年在美国生产的50%的新车实现零排放。至此，2022年是从内燃机向电池电动汽车转型的不平凡的一年。随着整个汽车产业以及美国政府坚定地支持向电气化转型，在美国的主要汽车制造商已明确承诺在这一个或下一个十年逐步淘汰内燃机乘用车，转而生产零排放汽车替代品。这些汽车制造商的战略蓝图包括：Stellantis的《Dare Forward 2030》，福特汽车的《新电池容量计划》以及通用汽车的《全电动未来计划》。甚至一些一直涉足电气化浪潮的日本的汽车制造商也开始质疑混合动力的未来。

As OEMs in the U.S. move towards transportation electrification, battery and related component suppliers from East Asia play an important and indispensable role in facilitating these lofty goals on the timetable promoted by the President. 2022 was a big year for these overseas battery manufacturers to shine on the U.S. auto market. With Ford’s recent announcement to contractually align with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. (CATL), for advanced LFP cells, it is clear that Washington’s go-it-alone mentality is unrealistic in the short-term and unhealthy for an industry that has depended on a global supply chain for decades. The footprints of other well-known battery suppliers from Asia are also crossing the United States. In May 2022, Stellantis and Samsung announced its joint venture for an electric vehicle battery plant in Indiana. In October 2022, Honda and LG Energy Solution jointly announced a $3.5 billion investment to build a joint venture EV battery plant in Ohio. In November 2022, Panasonic Energy began construction on a new lithium battery manufacturing facility in Kansas with Tesla as its primary customer. In December 2022, SK Innovation announced the ground-breaking of a battery manufacturing campus with Ford in Kentucky. And, then there have been major commitments by GM to partner with LG Energy to develop the Ultium EV platform, which GM hopes will secure their place as a leading BEV manufacturer.

随着美国的汽车制造商逐步走向交通电气化，来自东亚的电池和相关零部件的供应商在拜登总统电气化目标的推动下发挥着重要且不可或缺的作用。2022年是这些海外电池制造商在美国车市大放异彩的一年。随着福特汽车最近宣布与宁德时代就先进的LFP动力电池签订合作合同，显然华盛顿方面期望单独生产动力电池的心态在短期内是不现实的，而且这样的心态对于一个依赖于电池全球供应链数十年的汽车产业也来说也是不健康的。来自亚洲的其他知名电池供应商的足迹也正在穿越美国。2022 年 5 月，Stellantis 和三星宣布在印第安纳州成立一家电动汽车电池厂的合资企业。 2022 年 10 月，本田和 LG Energy Solution 联合宣布投资 35 亿美元在俄亥俄州建设一家合资电池工厂。 2022 年 11 月，松下能源开始在堪萨斯州建设新的锂电池制造工厂，特斯拉是其主要客户。2022 年 12 月，SK Innovation 宣布与福特汽车在肯塔基州的电池制造园区破土动工。 此外，通用汽车还做出了与 LG Energy 合作开发 Ultium EV 平台的重大承诺，通用汽车希望通过该平台巩固其作为电动汽车制造商的领先地位。

One inescapable fact that all of these announcements share is that OEMs recognize the importance of East Asia for these products, and it is an acknowledgement that the region, including China, remains key to the U.S. development of BEV.  Washington, however, has had an ambivalent understanding of the importance of this dynamic; pushing forward an agenda that both incentivizes production of BEVs in the U.S., but frustrating trade with the region.  President Biden’s Executive Order 14037 marked the administration’s moon shot to electrify, but Congress has also aggressively pushed the administration’s agenda. The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, signed into law by President Biden in November 2021, sets aside $7.5 billion for EV charging, including $5 billion for an EV charging formula grant program and a further $2.5 billion for fueling stations. Then, in August 2022, Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act, which allocates around $374 billion towards climate and energy spending, including tax credits for EV purchases and manufacturing in North America. These tax credits are conditioned on hitting certain content percentages for critical minerals and components sourced from North America – the specifics and feasibility of such sourcing still to be determined. 

上述所有消息都说明了一个不可回避的事实，即汽车制造商均认识到了东亚在汽车电池产品领域的重要性，并且承认包括中国在内的东亚仍是支持美国电动汽车发展的关键地区。然而华盛顿方面对这种动态的情形则有着自相矛盾的理解，美国政府一方面持续激励电动汽车的发展，然而另一方面却阻碍与上述重要地区的贸易往来。拜登总统的第14037号行政命令标志着美国政府电气化计划的开始，同时美国国会也积极推动立法的进程。拜登总统于2021年11月签署《基础设施投资和就业法》，该法拨出75亿美元投放在电动汽车充电桩的建造，其中50亿美元将用于电动汽车充电补助计划，剩余的25亿美元用于建造充电站。之后在2022年8月国会通过了《降低通胀法案》，该法案拨款约3, 740亿美元用于气候以及能源方面的支出，其中包括对北美电动汽车采购和制造的税收抵免。这些税收抵免的条件是从北美地区采购的制造电池的关键矿物和组件需要达到一定的百分比 – 该法案下采购的具体要求和可行性仍有待确定。

OEMs understand that the rules around these credits must recognize the importance of these industry dynamics.  Case in point, Japanese and South Korean OEMs have suggested that the rules adopt “flexible thinking” for the new EV tax credits, including how quickly the battery supply chain can be localized. Although U.S. OEMs are ramping up their vertical integration of battery supply chains from mineral exploration and mining to recycling, it will take time to supply a market quickly moving towards full BEVs.  Until then, the industry understands that East Asia plays a vital role in battery cell production up and down the supply chain. In fact, the top 10 battery producers today are all from East Asia.

汽车制造商们明白，围绕这些税收抵免的政策必须认识到电动汽车行业动态的重要性。一个典型的例子是，日本和韩国的汽车制造商们建议在这些政策下对电动汽车的税收抵免政策采取“灵活的思维，” 包括需要考虑到电池供应了本土化的速度。尽管美国的汽车制造商们正在加速从矿产勘探和采矿到回收的电池供应链的垂直整合，但要供应一个快速转向全电动汽车的市场还需要时间。在此之前，业界普遍认同东亚在供应链上下游的电池生产中发挥着至关重要的作用。事实上，当今排名前 10 位的电池生产商都来自东亚。